I watch the machinery underneath SPX — the big automated trading desks — and figure out whether they'll help or fight the next move.

I judge whether the market looks ready to make a big move or stay quiet, and whether options are cheap or expensive.

I watch what price is actually doing right now — who's winning, buyers or sellers. (Futures, breadth and constituents aren't wired up yet.)

Even if we guess direction right, I check whether the actual option is worth buying after spread, time and the expected move.

I study our own track record and say when we actually know something — with the numbers to back it up.

I'm paid to argue against the trade — to find the reason to wait.